My 5 Tips on Approaching Props and the First CFS Voting Guide

Since I’ve had a few people ask me how I’m voting, I wanted to share how I approach voter propositions (props) and create the first-ever California Future Society voting guide. If you just want voting recommendations, scroll down to the bottom. Hopefully, this post helps simplify your week and takes some election stress out of your life.

Props are a zany fixture in California’s elections. I’ve written a history on the system if you’re curious, but basically anyone with enough money to collect signatures can get their idea on the ballot, turning each election into a statewide pop quiz on a grab bag of random policies. In recent years, props have included everything from animal welfare to whether porn stars should wear condoms to and funding for dialysis treatment.

Understanding props can be stressful. Even as someone with a PhD in public policy who works in politics (disclosure: I’m not working on any props this year), I find the issues confusing. Last night, a friend from grad school shared how frustrated he feels. “Even after researching an issue I still have no idea what I’m voting on.” He’s not alone.

Props Are Confusing By Design

I’ll let you in on a secret. Props are often confusing by design. If you feel dumb reading the official descriptions, don’t feel bad. Everyone, even professionals, feels confused when figuring out how to vote.

As George Orwell put it, “political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable.”

Every prop is supported by politicians and interest groups trying to sell voters on a policy outcome. Confusing language serves as a Trojan horse, a vehicle to mask policies in impenetrable legal jargon. This makes it easier to define the narrative and pitch the issue in a way that sounds nice to voters.

For an example, let’s imagine you’re the head of a major lobbying organization and you have a problem. One of your opponents, a massive healthcare nonprofit, keeps spending millions of dollars to run props against your group every election. What do you do?

One solution, which is literally happening this year, is to fight fire with fire. You can run your own prop that would ban your opponent’s nonprofit from spending money on politics. Of course, you can’t tell voters to vote for the “Kneecap My Political Enemies” law. That doesn’t look good on a billboard. Instead, you make the campaign about something everyone supports, like lowering healthcare costs. Maybe put a nurse in the ads. People love nurses, right? There you go, you now have the “Yes on Prop 34 Campaign”.

While I support Prop 34 (more on that later), it embodies the absurdity of the prop system. People don’t know what they’re voting on, and they feel like they’re being misled.

Voting feels like ordering from a pushy waiter off a menu with no photos and over-the-top descriptions. You have no idea whether the “world famous burger” you ordered is any good and suspect you’re getting ripped off.

Here are some general tips on how to feel better equipped before you get in the voting booth.

Five Tips on How To Approach Props

1. Ignore the ads. They’re impossible to miss, but ads tend to not give you any valuable information. They cherry-pick the most appealing facts and present a warped view of reality. For example, you’ve likely seen ads supporting Prop 33 implying Kamala Harris supports the rent control measure. The truth is that she did not authorize her footage for the ad and hasn’t endorsed the measure.

2. Find out who is backing a proposal. Reading the list of supporters and opponents is a helpful shortcut. Are you mostly worried about lowering taxes and supporting business? Look for endorsements of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association or the California Chamber of Commerce. Are you more concerned about workers and a big supporter of unions? Look for the California Labor Federation. This is easy to do if you …

3. Use third-party guides. There are great comprehensive guides out there. My two favorites this cycle are:

   1. CalMatters. They show who is endorsing and spending money on each issue and link to video explainers and articles arguing both sides.

   2. Politico California. They give plain-language descriptions that lay out both sides of each prop.

4. When in doubt, vote no. Even with the best explainers these issues are complex. Props only get on the ballot because legislators or some special interest group put it on the ballot to change something. If you don’t feel great about changing the status quo on an issue, just vote no. Fun fact: two-thirds of all props failed over the past 100 years.

5. Prioritize Local Props. Yes, your vote matters, but only as much as the 39 million other Californians. If you have limited time to learn about the issues, focus on your local props and bond measures for your county, city, or school board. Those decisions can make or break a local budget and will directly impact your quality of life.

The California Future Society Voter Guide

This blog is focused on stoking California’s prosperity and re-establishing our state’s status as a global hub of economic opportunity. Not every prop relates to this mission, so below are my personal recommendations on the issues most relevant to California’s long-term growth. Above all else, vote no on Prop 33.

Prop 2 - School Facilities Bond: Yes

• Bonds are an expensive form of debt and we’re in a major deficit, so I don’t say yes lightly. It will cost over $17 billion over the next 35 years to repay this $10 billion bond. But our school funding system is broken and the money for school facilities has dried up. The school funding system needs to be reformed, but schools need money to make improvements to facilities in the meantime.

Prop 4 - Climate Change Bond: No

• Unlike the school facilities bond, I am not confident this money will be used well. This bond is full of a grab bag of line items under the “climate change” umbrella, some of which are awesome, others are highly questionable. We should not be taking out long-term debt to fund shade canopies for farmers markets.

Prop 5 - Lowering Voting Threshold for Bonds: No

• This would make it easier to pass local infrastructure bonds by lowering the required vote from 66% to 55%. I love local infrastructure, but municipalities are already staring down the barrel of hundreds of billions of dollars of unfunded bond debt and pension liabilities. More local bonds could jeopardize the finances of cities for decades to come.

Prop 32 - Raising the Minimum Wage to $18: No

• Recent economic literature shows a minimum wage can benefit low-income workers, but at some point the costs outweigh the benefits by decreasing job opportunities. Either way, California already has a robust minimum wage that adjusts each year with inflation and will increase to $16.50 in January without this prop. We should stick with the system the legislature passed instead of a prop put on the ballot with $10 million from a single tech investor.

Prop 33 - Rent Control (Even After Californians Already Voted “no” twice): No

• If you only pick one prop to vote on, vote no on 33. As I’ve argued, the housing crisis is smothering the California Dream. Prop 33 would make the problem worse by reducing the amount of new housing that gets built. It is on the ballot because the NIMBY head of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF), a billion-dollar healthcare nonprofit, spent millions of dollars to run it. The leading housing advocacy group calls it a “poorly conceived, overly broad measure” and even progressive newspapers like the LA Times oppose it because “it could make the housing crisis worse.”

Prop 34 - Stop the Person Behind Prop 33 From Running More Props: Yes

• Like I said in the intro, this prop is not really about healthcare spending. It is literally an effort by landlord advocacy groups to stop the AHF from spending healthcare revenue on politics. Opponents call this a “revenge prop” and argue state props should not be used to settle scores between specific advocacy groups. They’re right, but I believe California would be better off if the AHF was forced to only spend its money on patient services instead of politics. Why? Because AHF actively fights plans to build housing, is being sued by low-income tenants for “slum-like conditions,” doesn’t disclose conflicts of interest or political funding, has bullied local officials, and even lost a state contract due to bad-faith negotiating tactics. They should focus on healthcare instead of stopping housing development.

Prop 36 - Penalties for Theft: No

• California continues to swing back and forth on criminal justice policy. For decades, we had harsh mandatory minimums, but a decade ago voters swung back to justice reform and decreased penalties. This decision has recently gotten lots of media attention as retail theft has spiked since the pandemic. Most people agree we need to stop retail theft, but this year the state legislature already passed laws to increase penalties. Prop 36 will likely pass because people are ticked off CVS is locking up their deodorant, but I think it makes more sense to let the new laws this year take effect and not risk over-correcting. Here’s a great article about all the behind-the-scenes drama if you’re interested.

That’s it! Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts.