Why Californians Are Having Fewer Kids and Policy Can’t Fix It

A conversation with the brilliant (and funny!) Dr. Noah Johnson

Author

Jarrett Catlin
May 27, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

California’s fertility rate is near historic lows.

Politicians keep proposing pro-family policies, but what if none of them actually work?

In this episode, I talk with policy researcher and fellow Californian Dr. Noah Johnson about the hard truths behind declining birthrates. Why aren’t paid family leave, baby bonuses, and daycare subsidies moving the needle? What can California learn from other countries—and where is our state uniquely falling short?

We also explore the cultural and economic reasons behind shrinking families, the rise of black-market daycare, and why California cities are losing their grip on the next generation of parents.

Topics include:
– Why family policy doesn’t increase fertility
– California’s broken daycare and licensing system
– How parenting shapes civic engagement
– Why implementation is as important as ideas
– The cultural costs of childless cities
– Paid Family Leave in California: what’s working, what’s broken

Chapters
00:00 – Intro
02:23 – The State of Global Fertility
07:21 – Implications of Low Fertility Rates
10:30 – California-Specific Challenges
15:51 – Cultural Norms and Their Impact on Family Size
19:11 – The Societal Implications of Fewer Children
23:00 – What Makes People Leave CA
27:45 – Paid Family Leave: Successes and Challenges
34:53 – Easy Fixes to California’s Policies
46:40 – Hope for California’s Future

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